No surge in Irish export jobs as net migration turns positive

Irish employment expanded by 1% (+20,000) in the second quarter, up 2.9% on the year (+56,200) to June 2016, and for the first time since 2008, net migration was positive. However, the data from the Quarterly National Household Survey show that there has been no rise in tradeable export jobs since 2008.

The biggest rises were in administrative & support services, which grew +9.9% or 6,300 in 12 months while construction rose +8.7% or 10,900.

Services sector jobs rose 31,600, or 2.2% yoy, while industry added 9,200, or 3.7% yoy.

Total employment rose to 2.01m, down 132,000 from mid-2008 but above 2m for the first time since Q1 2009.

The jobless rate was unchanged on the quarter at 8.4% in Q2 2016 and was estimated at 8.3% in July, compared with a first estimate of 7.8%. This followed a revision in the size of the work force. Unemployment dropped by 23,400 on the year to 187,800, while the labour force rose by 32,800 in the same period to 2.2m. The participation rate was at 60.6% compared to 60.2% in mid-2015.

The broad rate of unemployment was 18% (8.4% headline rate plus potential additional labour force of 39,000; 62,000 in activation schemes and 114,000 part-time workers who are seeking full-time work.)

The number of immigrants to Ireland in the year to April 2016 is estimated by the CSO to have increased by almost 15% from 69,300 to 79,300, while the number of emigrants declined over the same period, from 80,900 to 76,200. These combined changes have resulted in a return to net inward migration for Ireland (+3,100) for the first time since 2008.

Net migration was at -0.5 in the year to April 2009.

More Irish nationals continue to leave than return but at a much lower level than in the previous year, falling from 23,200 to 10,700, while net inward migration among non-Irish nationals grew for the fourth year in a row, from 11,600 to 13,800.  

Export jobs

While jobs in industry rose by 9,200 in the 12 months to June 2016, total jobs in the sector are down 36,000 since mid-2008. Meanwhile there was a rise of 2,400 ICT (information and communication) jobs in the year and there was no change in financial services. ICT jobs are up by 12,000 in eight years.

Jobs in the tradeable export sectors typically are higher paying and more skilled than jobs in private domestic firms and the lowest paid are in accommodation and food service activities where 52,000 of the 146,000 employed are foreign workers.

A quarter of ICT staff are non-Irish.

Despite the impressive headline export data, the jobs recovery is mainly in domestic sectors.