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News : Irish Last Updated: Apr 24, 2009 - 5:31:05 PM

Davy says Irish housing starts still falling; bottom not yet in sight; Annualised rate over last three months below 40,000 units
By Finfacts Team
Feb 6, 2008 - 4:11:00 PM

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Rossa White, economist at Davy Stockbrokers, said in a commentary today that Irish housing starts still sliding; annualised rate over last three months below 40,000.

  • Irish housing starts fell to a new low of  32,141 annualised in January, based on the Davy updated model.   
  • The average annualised run-rate over the last three- month period has dipped below 40,000 for the first time – it stands at 38,247. The equivalent run-rate in January 2007 was 75,136.
    The new model incorporates one-off housing

  • For the first time, Davy has formally   incorporated one-off housing into its starts model. One-off housing is not down anywhere near as much as scheme housing (c.-10% year-on-year versus -60% for schemes).   
  • As a result, the level of housing starts is higher (c.10,000 annualised) than previously reported in H2 2007. But Davy had implicitly factored this into its completions model anyway, so Rossa White says that they still expect 45,000 completed units in 2008, down from 78,027 in 2007.

Davy still forecasts that starts will bottom in Q3 2008

  • The housing market is now in stage two (of three) in the correction process.   
  • This is the stage where sales pick up as a result of the sharp reduction in new supply and deep house price cuts (developers are reducing prices by as much as 20%).   
  • The market will reach stage three when the unsold stock has been partly eroded and builders begin to increase supply –  Q3 is Davy's best bet.

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